What Are the Odds?
by Drew “Darth Weasel” Barton
Raw Deal Staff Writer
darthweasel@hotmail.com

The other night I was playing in a 45 person Sit & Go Texas Hold ‘Em tournament. I had reached the finals and was trading the chip lead back and forth with my opponent. Finally I caught Pocket Rockets and bet into them pretty heavily. He called. The flop dropped another Ace and a pair of Kings, giving me the highest full boat available. Since he had already called me I went ahead and went all-in. He called and I smiled…until his cards flipped to show the pocket Kings. On the very hand I pulled about the best hand I have ever had, someone hit me with four of a kind to win the hand and, incidentally, the tournament.

The odds against him pulling a 4 of a kind were astronomical. The odds of him pulling that hand at the same time I pull something well worth betting into are impossibly high. But it still happened.

About this time you are probably wondering what a discussion of a poker hand is doing on the Raw Deal website. Nothing, really…and everything. A quick review of my poker history shows I am an above average player. This is partially because I know the odds. I know which hands are worth betting into and which hands are good to lay down. On top of that, I know my weaknesses…such as being a little TOO willing to lay down strong hands. I regularly lay down straights when there is evidence someone has a higher straight and have even been known to lay down a full house. On the other hand, because I know the odds, I know when it is reasonable to go against them based on the situation and the opponents.

And that brings us to Raw Deal. For those of you new to the game with Revolution, this article is from the standpoint of All Axxess and/or Afterburn. The aggression rule changes most if not all of the advice given here and that is something to keep in mind.

In Raw Deal it is easy to be intimidated by what your opponent might have. I have frequently seen people essentially lay down their hands because their opponent had a large Hand Size. This was more prevalent when Triple H and the APA were around but you still see it quite a bit in Edge decks, for example when they can start with 20 or more cards in Hand quite easily.

The assumption is that in a hand of that size they must have all the answers. Therefore, it becomes an “I will just sit here and wait to be pinned” where they refuse to even attempt a card because their opponent probably has the answers.

As you can see from my opening anecdote, there are simply times the odds don’t hold up. In poker it is often called taking a bad beat. In Raw Deal it can be as simple as drawing a poor starting Hand. And it happens. It happens more frequently than you would believe. I cannot count the number of times I have watched games where someone got a Maneuver through against JBL on the first turn…the JBL with his massive hand size and beloved Pre-Match card. I have seen Edge decks with 20 or 25 cards hands that failed to draw the applicable Reversal.

Obviously, this is not always the case. More often than not your 10 or 12 card Hand or larger will contain a few Reversals and more often than not they will be applicable. However, just bowing to the odds without attempting to get through those massive hands turns them into stronger Hands than they are. When you fail to attempt things you only play into their hands and give them an opportunity to draw what they need.

That is lesson one. Know the odds…and know if there is a way to beat them. For example, if you pack Dirty Low Blow in your Backlash Deck and have Boot Lace and German Suplex in your Arsenal then there is no reason whatsoever for you to obviate your strategy by trying to work through their hand. On the other hand, if you do not pack such cards then your best chance lies in bucking the odds and trying to work through any Reversals you might need to early on.

Lesson two you saw a brief glimpse of in lesson one. The Raw Deal is quite diverse and in that landscape there are numerous Superstars and strategies that allow the generation of extremely large Hand sizes. Therefore, one way to work around that is to find means of generating Fortitude against them. The aforementioned Dirty Low Blow, Boot Lace, German Suplex is one excellent way…but don’t rely on it too heavily. Remember, there are still Legends around as well as people like Victoria who have returnable or reusable Reversals on the board.

Lesson three hearkens to the free information I gave out to anyone who runs into me on the poker boards…just as I know my strengths and weaknesses as a poker player, you need to know your strengths and weaknesses as a Raw Deal player. If running into large hand sizes causes you to break out in a cold sweat and assume the game is over before you play your first Pre-Match card then it behooves you to work on that aspect of your game. Find ways around those large Hands. Or work out a way to generate your own outsize hand. On the contrary, if simply having a super-size Hand generates feelings of invulnerability then recognize you will sometimes have poor draws and work out ways to overcome that. Observably these are just examples and your strengths and weaknesses are most likely different than these examples. I selected these examples because they should be easily accessible to everyone.

It is easy to suggest the above but perhaps a better thing would be to give you an example. One of my weaknesses has always been when my opponent is able to strip my Hand. As a result, I needed to find a way to make my Hand size irrelevant. So during Divas Overload I actually developed a deck that intentionally stripped its own Hand. It was a Rikishi deck that between 3 JR Style Clubberin’s, Sustained Damage and his ability managed to start and end almost every turn with no cards in Hand. With the judicious use of I Can’t Be Reading This Rights I was still able to do various things every turn and the deck turned out to be far better than I had any right to expect. But even more important…it helped me develop strategies for the times when I had a Hand size disadvantage…it gave me a sense of the odds of my opponent drawing into the card(s) he needed, of my drawing or flipping the right card at the right time, and what some of my options were when various situations arose. These lessons stuck with me long after the Rikishi deck was torn down in favor of other builds.

I have found that to be a very effective strategy in developing my game. When I find a weakness in my Raw Deal playing I habitually make a deck that revolves around my weakness. This allows me to find different ways of approaching the situation and makes sure I am aware of the ramifications of being put in that situation when it is something my opponent has done rather than what I have elected to do. This does not flip the odds but it certainly moves them more in my favor.

So this article is fairly easy to sum up. If you know the cards that are available in the game today then you have an excellent chance of knowing the odds of your opponent being able to deal with your preferred strategy. You will be able to prepare to deal with troublesome strategies. Finally, by identifying and working on your weaknesses you will plug holes in your game and improve your chances of overcoming statistically troubling situations.